Energy tariffs and food prices continue to be key factors in Colombia's inflation, according to the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from DANE. The data showed that, for the third consecutive month, the monthly variation was 0.94%, with a year-over-year rate of 5.22%. Although a downward trend has persisted since last year, when inflation fell from 8.35% to 5.22%, reaching the 3% target set by the Bank of the Republic could be delayed until 2026, in light of the obstacle posed by the recent increase in the minimum wage. Experts such as Jackeline Piraján of Scotiabank Colpatria highlight that the substantial rise in wages has contributed to the stagnation of inflation, despite the Bank of the Republic's efforts to dampen consumption by raising interest rates.
The disinflationary process also feels the impact of factors such as the prices of utilities, food, and rents, which have negatively affected the rates due to climatic phenomena and administrative challenges. With the economic cooling toward the end of 2023, the Central Bank gradually reduced rates from 13.25% to 9.5%, but the stagnation in November and December caused uncertainty about price stability. While analysts like Laura Clavijo of Bancolombia warn about a challenging 2025 in inflationary matters, others like Juanita Téllez of Grupo BBVA observe the impact of indexation on key sectors, such as education and transportation, which could push costs higher during the first month of the year, a concern that is also noted by the academic Clara Inés Pardo.
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