The United States economy continues to defy expectations with robust growth, maintaining a pace that nearly doubles that of the eurozone. In the third quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.8%, just below the 3.0% registered in the previous quarter, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This performance shows that the Federal Reserve has managed to implement a soft landing in its monetary policy, containing inflation without inducing a recession. This economic growth comes at a key moment, just days before the presidential elections, and paints an initially favorable outlook for the successor to Joe Biden. However, the high public deficit and the country's growing debt remain structural concerns. The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, despite the economic evidence, continues to project a pessimistic message, arguing that an eventual upturn is due to expectations about his return to the presidency.
The momentum of U.S. economic growth in this quarter has been fueled mainly by consumption, exports, and federal government spending. Consumer spending, which has risen at an annualized rate of 3.7%, remains the engine of the economy, supported by low levels of unemployment, increases in real wages, and inflation that has begun to ease. Exports have also shown a notable increase, along with a significant rise in the federal government's defense spending at an annualized rate of 5%. Nevertheless, there has been a slowdown in inventory investment and a more pronounced decline in residential fixed investment. As for prices, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index has registered a slowdown in its growth, which could influence the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in the week following the elections, facing the uncertainty generated by the recent hurricanes that have affected the country.
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